According to the Altagamma Consensus 2022, digital retail is still expanding
The Altagamma Observatory twentieth anniversary coincides with the recovery of global high-end consumption, which has risen sharply compared to the black year of the pandemic and is also showing positive signs in respect of 2019. The Altagamma-Bain Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor 2021 estimates that the sector will grow globally to €1.1140 billion, recovering about half of its 2020 losses, thus approaching the €1.268 billion recorded pre-Covid. Personal luxury goods have registered a full recovery, with a 2021 market value forecast of €283 billion, up +1% on 2019.
The Altagamma Consensus 2022, drawn up with the contribution of leading international analysts, sees more organic and positive growth for 2022, even if not as fast as in 2021. The re-opening of stores and the gradual return of travel will favor the positive trend which estimates an average +11% in EBITDA for 2022. Pending the full recovery of international travel, whose plummet still weighs on the high-end experience market, particularly hospitality, the domestic US and Chinese markets, together with e-commerce are the driving force behind consumption, with the expected rebound effect compared to 2020. The positive trends, with more moderate growth rates, are expected to continue in 2022.
The distribution ecosystem - despite the reopening of stores - continues to push towards digital, which is once again the fastest growing channel. Distribution methods, which are increasingly omnichannel, have also been reshaped by Clienteling 2.0.
• Digital retail continues to expand and is expected to grow by 15% in 2022, albeit at a slower rate than in 2021. Many brands are moving towards single-brand distribution or e-tailers (concessions).
• Physical stores have recorded a 9% increase and continue to be important for the industry: despite an expected non-recovery in travel in 2022. New in-store experiences, with increasingly personalized and phygital approaches, optimize consumer engagement.
• Physical wholesale remains fragile at +4%. Many investments have been made in the sector to update its offer but the lack of tourist flows and Covid-19 concerns are still affecting the sector.
• 50% of online purchases are still made in digital wholesale, where a significant +13% growth will be consolidated. Performances in 2021 (+60%/+70%) will normalize.
“The Altagamma Observatory, which is celebrating its twentieth anniversary today, provides a snapshot of the performance and trends of the global luxury goods market, which has experienced a massive 135% growth in these last two decades contributing by 7.4% to Italy's GDP,” said Matteo Lunelli, President of Altagamma.
“A lot has changed in this segment, which is a veritable engine for the country's economy: the advent of digital technology, China's emergence, more inclusive values and a growing focus on sustainability. However, the importance of manufacturing, territorial bonds and the excellence of our creations, which are a pillar of exports and a soft power for Italy, remain central. For 2022, the Altagamma Consensus forecasts a continuing and sustained recovery for most sectors and an average 11% increase in companies' EBITDA.”